The hard part with these things is that in some ways progress and growth is non-linear. So Snap has (by all accounts) done a masterful job of launching their first hardware product:
How do you value that? I'm of the opinion that AR style glasses are the technology that will be the next tech wave post mobile phones (FB buying Oculus and Google pushing so much money on MagicLeap is explained for a similar reason).
So how do you consider Snap's Spectacles? Say there's a 10% chance that they become the initial dominant hardware player in the post-phone mobile space? What's that worth?
To me, it's a thought experiment about where SnapChat will be a few years in the future.
Consider that they are pretty indisputably the leaders in terms of shipping real, actual working AR on mobile -> https://youtu.be/Pc2aJxnmzh0
So "how do you value" the number one AR company on the planet having shipped their first hardware device that:
- Has sidestepped all the "glasshole" baggage of Google Glass
- Genuinely nice looking non "borg" styling
- Actually works as intended
- Masterfully executed on a unique and successful marketing rollout. I completely agree on your point that it's a "pair of glasses that stream video from a camera", the important thing is that they've built a whole distribution and demand system where that is actually something people want in large numbers.
So, compared to MagicLeap, HoloLens, etc. SnapChat is working from a "worse is better" standpoint where their v1 is horrible on a feature vs feature basis against the Hololens (and presumably whatever MagicLeap is going to ship).
But, I feel pretty confident in thinking that they're selling many more units of their Spectacles (at $129) than Hololens (at $3,000) and they're learning at a much faster rate.
The question is: What will Spectacles v2-v5 look like? At what point do they not need a mobile phone? At what point can they make phone calls? At what point do they get gestural support (another area where Snapchat feels like a leader on mobile).
It's hard to look at an early click-wheel, monochrome screen iPod and see a mobile phone ecosystem worth trillions of dollars and I think it's far from certain that Spectacles are the equivalent, but I think there is a real chance that is the case.
The same way you value anything. AR might be "new", but "new" things aren't new; they come out all the time, forever.
>It's hard to look at an early click-wheel, monochrome screen iPod and see a mobile phone ecosystem worth trillions of dollars
Which is why it would be incredibly naive to, in any way, predict Snapchat to have that sort of success, because it is so incredibly rare. It's like playing the lottery: yes there's a winner, but the odds of any individual company becoming "best ever" are incredibly slim. I have the same sentiment toward TSLA. I invest accordingly.
I think we are saying the same thing, I just lean cynical.
No disrespect to Spectacles, but camera glasses have been around for years. It's not AR and it's not yet even material to Snap's business (according to Snap!).
Right, but this goes back to the arguments everyone had about the iPod - MP3 players had been around for years, the iPod nailed the execution (eventually - the first version was not a success). Nor was it material to Apple's success, at the time.
The point is that proven execution is a good thing, because it implies you'll do it again.
Great point. I know it's not the best comparison feature-wise, but look at the public reaction to Google Glass vs Snap Spectacles. Snap understands how to make the product sexy, not just tech-sexy. Snap understands how to make their innovation fit into the lifestyle of their users.
Anecdotally, it's been interesting to see GoPro take off over the years, spreading from "extreme sports pros" at the beginning to include more casual/recreational uses now. A lot of friends who wouldn't have considered buying a GoPro 5 years ago (because "they don't do anything exciting/dangerous enough to need it") are now considering GoPros to document the slightly more exciting parts of life. These same friends are even more strongly considering Spectacles, because Snap made a product that fits into their lifestyle (lowering the barrier of what is "interesting enough" to capture)
The company might not be doing well but their product is solid. If they don't figure it out, GoPro is going to be acquired by someone, that's for certain.
Perhaps, but their "solid product" isn't selling well which makes it seem less solid. Everyone already has a very high quality camera with them all the time and almost no one does extreme sports that would benefit from a more sturdy camera. I have one and don't even know where it is, it's useless.
spectacles are record-only at the moment without any viewing for the wearer. adding user-viewing is at least one order of magnitude more difficult than the current device. is there any evidence that spectacles will be transitioned into AR?
https://www.spectacles.com/
How do you value that? I'm of the opinion that AR style glasses are the technology that will be the next tech wave post mobile phones (FB buying Oculus and Google pushing so much money on MagicLeap is explained for a similar reason).
So how do you consider Snap's Spectacles? Say there's a 10% chance that they become the initial dominant hardware player in the post-phone mobile space? What's that worth?