I find it hard to believe that surface transportation is going to remain dominated by liquid fuels for that long.
Gasoline motor fuel accounts for somewhat less than half of global petroleum consumption.
If you could wave a magic wand and eliminate gasoline demand tomorrow, the oil business would suffer a catastrophic adjustment/contraction, yes. But it would not go away, it would still be huge and powerful and rich and important. There are a lot of applications where there is no viable alternative yet, and no viable alternative on the horizon.
Here's a perverse idea: falling oil demand and prices due to vehicular electrification could make petroleum an attractive fuel for electricity generating plants. Ugh!
Small changes in oil supply greatly affect price. If oil demand gets cut half, then oil prices plumet to 20$ a barrel and stay there for decades. And then the oil countries go bankrupt.
Gasoline motor fuel accounts for somewhat less than half of global petroleum consumption.
If you could wave a magic wand and eliminate gasoline demand tomorrow, the oil business would suffer a catastrophic adjustment/contraction, yes. But it would not go away, it would still be huge and powerful and rich and important. There are a lot of applications where there is no viable alternative yet, and no viable alternative on the horizon.
Here's a perverse idea: falling oil demand and prices due to vehicular electrification could make petroleum an attractive fuel for electricity generating plants. Ugh!