This is a bit banal. Nobody can predict second and third order effects reliably because they don't know how to weight one predicted effect vs another to know how they'll intersect and interact.
Extrapolation for any one technology usually works well for a short distance into the future (a decade or so), but the chances of a technology being blindsided by something else entirely rapidly rise over time.
It's not second or third order effects, it's the way that technologies facilitate social changes that trips people up.
The astounding thing about the Internet isn't just that it's possible to do all kinds of science fiction things with it, but that it has no single inventor.
In fact a public internet for shopping, dating, and photo sharing was never even considered as a goal when the core technologies were being RFC'd.
The real value of technology only appears when it intersects with user land. The broader the take-up, the bigger the potential for bottom-up social and political effects.
Telegraphy, radio, heavier than air flight, internal combustion ground cars, TV, and even printing were all defined by the political and social changes they created far more than by the physics that made them work.
So traditionally when someone prognosticates about a new shiny thing they assume their culture won't change and the technology will somehow fit into it.
Far more often, the most interesting thing about new technology is the way it affects belief systems, economic and social activity, and political power relationships.
Extrapolation for any one technology usually works well for a short distance into the future (a decade or so), but the chances of a technology being blindsided by something else entirely rapidly rise over time.