Or just plain malice. Do not be mistaken, the final objective of the "socialist" agenda of the Venezuelan regime has always been to enslave an entire nation in order to lock themselves into power forever.
To be honest, Venezuela was doing great during Chavez because the guy as much as he was Trump like in his rethoric, was no fool. As soon as Maduro took power, he created massive chaos in the foreign currency exchange system, and he kept tampering with the economy with one failed policy after another, until we have arrived here.
The problem with socialism the way I see it is that at some point there will always be a guy who wants to concentrate all the power to himself, like Chavez, Fidel, Mao, Stalin, etc. and then leave a big mess behind after they leave or after they have been in power for several years.
Do you honestly believe Chavez would not be in this position? Seriously? (de pana?) Venezuela was doing 'great' because oil prices were soaring, which in turn made dubious economic policy affordable. Chavez did enjoy massive political support, mainly because venezuelans do enjoy their free rides (just look up how many pensions and public jobs Venezuela has, which, by the way, are now the ones being affected the most by this crisis).
I am absolutely sure that Maduro, while incompetent, is in the same kind of problems Chavez would be, and is pushing the same agenda Chavez would have. Let's not get confused by personality cult here.
Sorry, I'm not biased politically, which is kind of a rare thing these days here I guess. I am able to see good things both in a guy like Leopoldo Lopez and Chavez as well. Just ask yourself if you can do the same. But on to the point.
If you lived in Venezuela right around the time when Chavez died, you would remember vividly how you were able to access those Cadivi dollars, no matter how bad and annoying the system was with the three/four stupid folders they made you fill. Importers could buy stuff with their black market dollars and then replenish their stash when Cadivi finally payed them. As soon as Maduro took power he dismantled Cadivi and it has been next to impossible to get dollars at the official exchange rate. In my opinion that is the root of all problems, and yes, I do believe that under Chavez that would not have happened even if he was foolish enough to establish that exchange control for so long in the first place.
Hell, think about it, if tomorrow they really start offering dollars at whatever conversion rate, let's say 2000 but coming from the Central Bank, I can bet you everything I have this whole problem goes away immediately. There is an inherent quality at just being able to go to your bank to exchange currency instead of exchanging on a pool of people you know.
I'm very sorry to sound harsh, but you have a fundamental misunderstanding on how economy works. It's not the government who choses an exchange rate (or for that matter, the value of anything), it's the market. If you choose to believe that Cadivi was a 'great' thing, you are simply living in a fantasy fueled by high oil prices and cheap dollars that make you think that this was 'great'.
The thing with free rides is that, no matter how high or 'great' they sound on paper, they eventually end, and you see the real problems.
> "Importers could buy stuff with their black market dollars and then replenish their stash when Cadivi finally payed them."
Sounds just great. A 'great' working economy, working around arbitrage and fantasies. I don't need to have 'political biases' to see that Chavez, whose agenda crippled the entire private sector and killed every other possibility of economic growth that didn't depend on oil, would be in exactly the same position as Maduro.
Don't get me wrong, I too believe the exchange control is really bad. I certainly did not enjoy assembling the stupid folders and God knows how many trips to the bank. My main point was that what Maduro is doing almost makes the other system seem like a good thing.
But yes, we both agree that the person that started this whole craziness was Chavez. But I still disagree with you regarding what Chavez, or any other politician for that matter would have done in his shoes. I believe Maduro's main flaw is this attitude of not doing anything while the whole structure is crumbling. In my life, I have never seen any other politician like him unless we are talking about some of these government secretaries that end up being governors or mayors when the actual elected person starts slacking for whatever reason.
I believe the problem here, more than oil prices, is mismanagement of an epic proportion. In Venezuela way too many things are either free or subsidized. You get free college for kids arriving on fancy SUVs, public hospital infrastucture rotting away and the never ending public servant attitude of not showing to work, arriving late, stealing stuff, etc. Extremely cheap gasoline, and the list goes on and on.
At the current prices, countries like Saudi Arabia and Venezuela can still turn a profit on their production, as opposed to the UK with their deposits on the North Sea or the US/Canada with shale oil.
But of course, there is always the question of who created Maduro, and Chavez is fully responsible for that disaster.
I don't know, Venezuela is inches away from going into war.
Maduro and all his friends could be really incompetent running the country, but they are experts in controlling all the structure of power there.
I have Venezuelan engineer friends that were ousted of PDVSA, the national oil company, because they were great technical people but not politically sided with Chavez. They went to work for companies like BP, Repsol or Shell outside Venzuela but the people that replaced them were total Chavez supporters.
All those supporters could not expect to get anywhere near their current status if Maduro falls in disgrace. They would do anything to remain in power including taking weapons and killing people.
Venezuela has become one of the most dangerous place on earth.
PS: The people that aspire to replace Maduro are also socialist.
Nobody is going to kill anybody unless they are paid for thugs. The National Assembly has the opposition in control by a vast majority after the latest election. Maduro and friends are in deep crap and they know it, which is why they have been delaying by any means possible anything related to elections.
I can bet you even those new engineers at PDVSA will be voting to oust Maduro as well when the time comes. People are fed up with the lines for everything, and low wages caused by the massive inflation. What is needed right now is a proper vehicle to channel all that, which will need to be different from the opposition since they are closely resembling eunuchs of old times.
