The molecular clock doesn't care when the island was isolated or for how long, it's used as a benchmark tool to differentiate the relative time period between 2 genetic sequences which share a common ancestor, it never gives you a date it can tell you that it took 4 times the time to arrive to state X from state Z than it took from state Y.
We know that the island is isolated sufficiently because of the unique SIV strains, we also know that the populations of the animals were isolated because there are no signs of cross-breeding.
There have also been countless studies to determine the age and the source of the tMRCA between HIV and SIV, and SIV is the source for every genetic study, even those that do not rely on using molecular phylogenetics to ascertain the time scale.
SIV and other primate lentiviruses are old, they are asymptomatic in the vast majority of their natural hosts which suggest coevolution which resulted effectively in cohabitation.
Most of the current work is done in regards to tMRC identification to build an accurate timeframe to understand why did HIV1 jumped from chimps to humans and HIV2 jumped from mangabeys.
We are also studying the divergence of different strains of SIV between different species of primates to better understand the virus, all of these studies find completely different time scale than what you are proposing, in fact other than conspiracy theories that were already disproven no science actually backs up any of your assertions.
Overall even if we take the studies that point to a completely different pathology and estimate the age of SIV at 100's or a few 1000's of years old, the divergence of the different strains still means it came first, spread across the primate population of africa, and then jumped to humans.
>"The molecular clock doesn't care when the island was isolated or for how long"
The rest of what you wrote is interesting (or will be once I get some sources for your claims), but you start out with this one that blatantly disagrees with what was written in your own source. In your source it says that molecular clock depends on the assumption the island was isolated for 12,000 years.
It would be great if you could:
1) Focus on that one point to clear up why you disagree with your own source, do this without writing about anything else. I am stuck on that issue right now.
2) Bring some links when referring to evidence, so I can tell what has made you believe the things you say. I am getting the sense you are well informed but not quite skeptical enough (perhaps current grad student?). The devil is in the details, as I have seen with the "isolated" island and molecular clock interdependence.
We know that the island is isolated sufficiently because of the unique SIV strains, we also know that the populations of the animals were isolated because there are no signs of cross-breeding.
There have also been countless studies to determine the age and the source of the tMRCA between HIV and SIV, and SIV is the source for every genetic study, even those that do not rely on using molecular phylogenetics to ascertain the time scale.
SIV and other primate lentiviruses are old, they are asymptomatic in the vast majority of their natural hosts which suggest coevolution which resulted effectively in cohabitation.
Most of the current work is done in regards to tMRC identification to build an accurate timeframe to understand why did HIV1 jumped from chimps to humans and HIV2 jumped from mangabeys.
We are also studying the divergence of different strains of SIV between different species of primates to better understand the virus, all of these studies find completely different time scale than what you are proposing, in fact other than conspiracy theories that were already disproven no science actually backs up any of your assertions.
Overall even if we take the studies that point to a completely different pathology and estimate the age of SIV at 100's or a few 1000's of years old, the divergence of the different strains still means it came first, spread across the primate population of africa, and then jumped to humans.