I'm not sure they understand just how many intermediate steps requiring non-obvious technical progress are going to be required between 2, 3, 4, and 5. On a premapped track, 3 is just fine at present, but Google is nowhere near 3 for the sort of adverse conditions and unmapped road alterations that are common in much of the road network. This is going to be an iterative design process if it's moving forward at all.
A likely future is one where automation is only enabled for consumers as an option on a minority of roads (starting with the Interstate Highway System) that have been heavily mapped and managed, and we work from there, developing the algorithms at high sample size, then slowly extending out into the state highways and arterials. The roads and maintenance actions will likely also, as the tech progresses, have some modifications made to increase reliability.
These cars are going to need a large quantity of sensors; The Uber self-driving car has "something like 20 cameras, a 360 degree radar, and a bunch [7] of laser [rangefinders]", and this is a decent start; a Tesla and even a Google car is simply not equipped for enough edge cases to let a consumer near without making them hands-on-wheel liable to take over.
99.99...9% of my driving takes place on heavily mapped well-managed roads (occasional pothole notwithstanding) that are heavily trafficked by other cars. As far as I'm concerned, if Google can do this, their vehicle is fully autonomous.
Only like three towns are "heavily mapped" to the level required for a Google self-driving car to work. And the problem is that if the car relies on the map, your first car to see a road or a change in the road, won't know what to do.
"As far as you're concerned" doesn't mean a whole lot.
A likely future is one where automation is only enabled for consumers as an option on a minority of roads (starting with the Interstate Highway System) that have been heavily mapped and managed, and we work from there, developing the algorithms at high sample size, then slowly extending out into the state highways and arterials. The roads and maintenance actions will likely also, as the tech progresses, have some modifications made to increase reliability.
These cars are going to need a large quantity of sensors; The Uber self-driving car has "something like 20 cameras, a 360 degree radar, and a bunch [7] of laser [rangefinders]", and this is a decent start; a Tesla and even a Google car is simply not equipped for enough edge cases to let a consumer near without making them hands-on-wheel liable to take over.