The thing is that if one day Microsoft decides to phase out the Win32 platform and leave only UWP, right now the only official way to get UWP apps is through the Microsoft's Windows Store. So the competition you're talking about would disappear because there would be only one way to get Windows software, the Microsoft way. It would be impossible to have competing App Stores, similar to the situation right now on iOS.
Seems far-fetched but I can see Microsoft slowly deprecating Win32. It would be similar to when Apple deprecated Carbon, only slower: they'll stop adding new features, they'll tell developers to avoid it for any new development, etc. Won't happen overnight though as they're too much legacy software out there, but it could happen in the span of several years, a decade or so. Right now what I'm saying is fiction but it's a possibility any store developer like Valve and customers too should have in mind.
Seems far-fetched but I can see Microsoft slowly deprecating Win32. It would be similar to when Apple deprecated Carbon, only slower: they'll stop adding new features, they'll tell developers to avoid it for any new development, etc.
They'd have to be really, really careful going down that path, though. Microsoft's biggest advantage in the OS landscape, aside from preinstallation deals, has long been the broad range of established software that is exclusive to Windows. It's tough to migrate your business to Apple laptops or Linux servers or tablets in the mobile workforce if several key applications that 1,000 of your staff have been using every working day for a decade don't run on those other platforms. It's a closed loop for software developers as well, because as long as your customers are almost all on Windows, there's little benefit to developing for other platforms concurrently.
With so many business applications now offering web-based access, that exclusivity has already been eroded, and that process shows no sign of slowing down. If Microsoft were to nerf the long-established Windows APIs that "heavyweight" software like graphics and CAD packages rely on, that would force the redevelopment issue for those software developers, and I'm not sure Microsoft would like the long term results. They might wind up with exclusive control of the main delivery channel on Windows, but that only matters if the developers and users are still on Windows at all. With gaming in particular, we've seen in the past that one or two smash hits can be all it takes to establish a new platform, whether it's one of the consoles or mobile or just puzzle games via Facebook. With the resources available to Steam, that has to be a scary prospect for Microsoft.
If Microsoft ever deprecates Win32, they won't sneak it overnight. Anyone can integrate UWP into their store today if they want, and they would have plenty of time to do it. This is a company that still supports Windows XP from 2001 with special contracts. It seems strange to compare this theoretical point in the future where Win32 is deprecated with who supports it right now. It's a good point that it's important to have platforms that no one company controls, but this fear of UWP seems unjustified when it's open to anyone.
They may not ever deprecate W32 apis (I bet they won't) but they also don't need to support it for new development. Hypothetically if DX13 required using UWP and given they want all xbox games to also work on windows, they I believe are doing this through UWP so devs are going to use it for cross platform games etc... Then you get to a point where you can use w32 but are at a serious disadvantage.
We're comparing it to this theoretical point in the future because that's literally what the article says.
> "The risk here is that, if Microsoft convinces everybody to use UWP, then they phase out Win32 apps. If they can succeed in doing that then it’s a small leap to forcing all apps and games to be distributed through the Windows Store. Once we reach that point, the PC has become a closed platform. It won’t be that one day they flip a switch that will break your Steam library – what they’re trying to do is a series of sneaky manoeuvres. They make it more and more inconvenient to use the old apps, and, simultaneously, they try to become the only source for the new ones."
What I'm responding to is "if one day Microsoft decides to phase out... right now the only official way..." If they ever decide to phase it out, it won't matter what support UWP had mid-2016, it will matter what support it has when the phase out happens. Also, it's officially sanctioned right now to sideload downloaded programs not installed from the Microsoft store. Microsoft has publicly promised never to close the platform, and they aren't so powerful that they can afford to go against their development community like that. There's nothing at all indicating that Microsoft is going to shut out competing app stores and sideloading. The only evidence is that some people feel that Microsoft wants to do that.
This will be the day I abandon Windows completeley. Right now, I only use it for games anyhow. But as you said, it will probably be a long way, with enough time to make alternative arrangements
So if I want to develop let's say, python applications, I would have to download the python runtime from Windows Store? This seems unbelievable and would make a lot of people leave the OS simply because it's getting too locked down.
I like windows today but I have no real loyalty. I would have no issues with leaving it for Linux the day it's too locked down.
Seems far-fetched but I can see Microsoft slowly deprecating Win32. It would be similar to when Apple deprecated Carbon, only slower: they'll stop adding new features, they'll tell developers to avoid it for any new development, etc. Won't happen overnight though as they're too much legacy software out there, but it could happen in the span of several years, a decade or so. Right now what I'm saying is fiction but it's a possibility any store developer like Valve and customers too should have in mind.