I'm not convinced that the Chinese economic growth is sustainable. For the sake of all those Chinese without Urban Residency Permits I hope the growth continues, but I am not optimistic.
And yes, a sudden transition to democracy would be disastrous for China. However, a safe and slow transition could begin today.
Btw this is mostly a disagreement of relative morals, where we in the West have this concept that a government should be "good" where that word doesn't have the same meaning in China.
But how should the transition even begin? By repealing all internet censorship laws?
Most people don't realize that every day the situation in China improves for the better. Even the stiffling hukou system that you allude to has been slowly weakened over the years.
In regards to your last sentence I'm not quite sure what you mean. I took it to mean that the social ideas of justice and law are different in China, of which I would tend to agree.
West = rule of law. China = rule by law.
Frankly I think Chinese society is just not ready for democracy. There is simply no civic society.
There are civic groups in China, many in fact. The government has even been tolerant, to a degree, to advocacy groups.
I think for a smooth transition, China needs to uplift its rural population. The urbanites are largely ready for democracy, but outside of a handful of cities the rest of the country simply do not have the institutions, social experience, etc to support a working transparent free-market democracy.
sorry for the meta-comment, but i'm dismayed by the use of down-votes for posts expressing unpopular opinions (unpopular w.r.t. the hacker news audience). it's gotten so bad that i can quickly pinpoint dissenting opinions by scrolling quickly through a thread and looking for big blocks of grayed-out text (in contrast, down-votes for one-liners like "lulz ur a fag" are usually justified).
Yeah, I upvoted lhuang, his was not the kind of wrong dissent that deserved a downvote but the type of dissent that comes naturally on a complex issue without a right answer.
what i find surprising is that only those users with high karma points can downvote.
excluding those who've racked up points through submissions, the theory goes that high karma points = thoughtful poster.
thoughtful posters should thus realize that China is a country of 1.3 billion people, which highly highly complicates EVERYTHING.
Frankly, compared to the other 1 bln + country, I think China has done a remarkable job. Even if you just focus on the HR record, China is comparable to India, if not exceeding it.
In India... Caste systems are still the norm, the government is as corrupt if not more so than Chinese. Millions and millions still languish in poverty. Crime is higher!
China is worse in regards to suppressing free speech and political dissidents. Everything else; poverty, crime, development India either lags or is just as bad.
To go meta on this meta, I think the requirement to downvote is still something like 200 to 250 karma. With a couple good submissions or comments, you could have that in a matter of days.
The community has grown, and these restrictions aren't "indexed to inflation" so to speak, so the bar is lower all the time. Also, while I personally agree that downvotes should only be used for trollish things (or really just done away with in favor of flagging), that has never been universally agreed upon (and I have seen this topic come up a lot).
No offense, but this talk of a slow transition to democracy makes me think of Martin Luther King, Jr.'s Letter From a Birmingham jail:
"Lamentably, it is an historical fact that privileged groups seldom give up their privileges voluntarily. Individuals may see the moral light and voluntarily give up their unjust posture; but, as Reinhold Niebuhr has reminded us, groups tend to be more immoral than individuals.
We know through painful experience that freedom is never voluntarily given by the oppressor; it must be demanded by the oppressed. Frankly, I have yet to engage in a direct action campaign that was "well timed" in the view of those who have not suffered unduly from the disease of segregation. For years now I have heard the word "Wait!" It rings in the ear of every Negro with piercing familiarity. This "Wait" has almost always meant "Never." We must come to see, with one of our distinguished jurists, that "justice too long delayed is justice denied."
We have waited for more than 340 years for our constitutional and God given rights. The nations of Asia and Africa are moving with jetlike speed toward gaining political independence, but we still creep at horse and buggy pace toward gaining a cup of coffee at a lunch counter."
Dude. Has China opened up in the last 30 years? Is life better for the average Chinese? Has society not been more liberalized?
Tell me how China can democratize today without massive social upheaval? Tell me how this can be accomplished without throwing millions of Chinese back into poverty?
Thats the problem. China has 1.3 billion fucking people! The institutions in place are as fragile as the CCP (very). All sorts of social problems are on the verge ALL THE TIME of bubbling over.
Tell me how China can transition in the short-term before giving me these bullshit passionate appeals of "freedom" and "democracy".
Soundbytes sound GREAT. I personally LOVE them, but they add LITTLE to this debate.
I'm a big fan of MLK. He once said "the arch of the moral universe is long, but it bends towards justice"
You could argue that this applies to China. Change is long and slow, but there is progress being made. The situation today, even with its restrictions, is 100x better than it was 10, 20, 30 years ago. There is little reason to believe that it won't continue to improve.
The middle class is growing, people are increasingly more educated, these two things are major ingredients for democracy.
Why I think you're use of his Letter From Birmingham Jail is a "bullshit passionate appeal" is because the context that his letter was written in and the current Chinese climate are two different beasts.
Are my points that off? I'm surprised by how much opposition I've incurred on HN. The points I've raised and the arguments I've made are not radical. They are in fact widely accepted / endorsed by the majority of China scholars in the west.
The reason I use the Letter is the point MLK makes is that it will always be "too soon" for democracy. I can't think of a single democracy that had an easy or peaceful transition. About the closest I can think of is the short-lived "Prague Spring".
I'm not a complete stranger to China. I've heard this same slow progress argument before. 10 years ago, "China's making progress", 20 years ago, "China's making progress". There's that horse and buggy pace. If China had made that much progress, they'd be there already. People in China in favor of democracy should have support, and "you're not ready for it" isn't support.
And yes, a sudden transition to democracy would be disastrous for China. However, a safe and slow transition could begin today.
Btw this is mostly a disagreement of relative morals, where we in the West have this concept that a government should be "good" where that word doesn't have the same meaning in China.