Hacker News new | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submit login

Very interesting.

From [1]:

Famously, Karl Popper (1959) rejected the idea that theories are ever confirmed by evidence and that we are ever entitled to regard a theory as true, or probably true. Hence, Popper did not think simplicity could be legitimately regarded as an indicator of truth. Rather, he argued that simpler theories are to be valued because they are more falsifiable. Indeed, Popper thought that the simplicity of theories could be measured in terms of their falsifiability, since intuitively simpler theories have greater empirical content, placing more restriction on the ways the world can be, thus leading to a reduced ability to accommodate any future that we might discover. According to Popper, scientific progress consists not in the attainment of true theories, but in the elimination of false ones. Thus, the reason we should prefer more falsifiable theories is because such theories will be more quickly eliminated if they are in fact false. Hence, the practice of first considering the simplest theory consistent with the data provides a faster route to scientific progress. Importantly, for Popper, this meant that we should prefer simpler theories because they have a lower probability of being true, since, for any set of data, it is more likely that some complex theory (in Popper’s sense) will be able to accommodate it than a simpler theory.

Popper’s equation of simplicity with falsifiability suffers from some well-known objections and counter-examples, and these pose significant problems for his justificatory proposal (Section 3c). Another significant problem is that taking degree of falsifiability as a criterion for theory choice seems to lead to absurd consequences, since it encourages us to prefer absurdly specific scientific theories to those that have more general content. For instance, the hypothesis, “all emeralds are green until 11pm today when they will turn blue” should be judged as preferable to “all emeralds are green” because it is easier to falsify. It thus seems deeply implausible to say that selecting and testing such hypotheses first provides the fastest route to scientific progress.

[1] http://www.iep.utm.edu/simplici/#SSH4bi




The second quoted paragraph seems to be attacking a strawman. I don't think it was suggested that we should add silly details to improve falsifiability, but rather remove them. Moreover, it seems like this is a way to choose between existing theories, rather than a way to mutate one theory into a better one.


It's pointing out that the equivalence of "simpler" with "more falsifiable" is not perfect. Nobody is suggesting that we just add silly details for the sake of increasing falsifiability, but suppose two research groups independently arrived at those competing theories. Should we choose the simpler one or the more falsifiable one?


A simpler explanation for valuing simplicity is that a simpler theory requires less storage/processing of the human brain. A more complex theory could explode in complexity so that all of its parts and ramifications wouldn't be easily learnable by a human.




Consider applying for YC's Spring batch! Applications are open till Feb 11.

Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: