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Also note that in this hypothetical world, Uber suddenly has to make gigantic capital investments in fleets of automobiles, whereas now they don't have that limiter on their growth.

I find that a LOT of people go from "I envision a world in which rides-on-demand serves massively more rides" to "and thus Uber does very well as a for-profit company" with no steps in between.

Since 1970, the number of passenger miles traveled by air in the US has grown about 6-fold [1]. And airlines have, as an entire industry, overall run a loss. There's a cautionary tale in there for Uber bulls.

(BTW: Driverless cars don't necessarily mean that rides-on-demand becomes the dominant car transportation model, either, though it's certainly within the realm of the possible).

[1] http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/pub...




That's one model, but you could also have owners of autonomous cars allow Uber to use their car in the fleet.

Basically you can pay people a lot less to be 'drivers' if they don't need to be driving.


But then Uber has to share the profits with the owners of the cars.

Also: if very large numbers of people are buying autonomous cars, then there's probably not a lot of increase in the rides-for-hire market.




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