Manufacturing is slowly moving to be "on demand". That is, a consumer purchases something, then it is built and shipped to them. It doesn't make sense any more for a company to predict market volume and then produce goods to match the prediction, especially since technology turns over so fast.
With that in mind, I could see Apple having simple components being produced in a number of different countries, then shipped out to wherever their products are in demand. Then the components are assembled by robots locally and the final product is picked up or shipped down the street to the consumer. I remember reading that this is where the auto industry is heading. They want to produce interchangeable car parts which get assembled at the dealership when a person purchases the car.
So to your point, China is already done. Instead of huge factories producing consumer ready goods, Apple just needs a handful of smaller factories making much simpler intermediary components. It's much easier to setup and move these smaller factories around, rather than these huge factory cities managing a massive production line.
I predict that technology is not going to move that fast as it used to (moore's law etc). Instead we will go back to the age of "durable" / "longer lasting goods". A good software will make a difference between scoring a sale or not. Same with services.
Besides most of the companies are trying to move the manufacturing to Vietnam, Indonesia, India, Africa etc or automatizing as much as possible.
> Instead we will go back to the age of "durable" / "longer lasting goods".
I think it's more likely that, goods will become more flimsy, cheaply made, and disposable. If true progress no longer provides motivation to buy new things, manufacturers will invent new ones.
factories could be distributed around the world. you'd have to weigh the increased costs of sourcing resources, but would benefit from lack of worker unionization or mobility.
With that in mind, I could see Apple having simple components being produced in a number of different countries, then shipped out to wherever their products are in demand. Then the components are assembled by robots locally and the final product is picked up or shipped down the street to the consumer. I remember reading that this is where the auto industry is heading. They want to produce interchangeable car parts which get assembled at the dealership when a person purchases the car.
So to your point, China is already done. Instead of huge factories producing consumer ready goods, Apple just needs a handful of smaller factories making much simpler intermediary components. It's much easier to setup and move these smaller factories around, rather than these huge factory cities managing a massive production line.