I actually think within the next 5-10 years companies that require scale like Google, Facebook, etc. will be possible at very low cost. Low enough even that the project can be bootstrapped without funding.

They of course won't start out at that scale, but given the ease with which one can scale cloud products (or have it done automatically for you via things like Elastic Beanstalk) and how cheaply it can be done, I will be surprised if within 10 years there won't be legitimate competitors to all of those companies that were formed in the hypothetical garage startup scenario.

Well that's true that it's low cost. The difficulty I'd run into is how to get people to actually use it without spending on advertising.

I don't think the big problem will be trying to get people to use the system.

I think the whole thing (especially with social networks) rides on just how hard they want to fight to keep their users' data off of other networks.

If, for example, Facebook decides to prevent other social networks from pulling user data off of Facebook, then I think that will in large part drive end users' desire to find alternatives.

Well there's that too. But to get people to use a new social network in the first place, you either need to hope for a viral effect or spend on advertising. Unless I'm missing something.

I kind of think these days people generally understand the "groups" or "communities" or "family members" they are usually in contact with.

So I kind of envision that new social networks don't need to grow in that "all or nothing" model.

Also I see great potential for "glue networks". Or, in other words, networks responsible for facilitating the seamless transmission of data to / from different social networks depending on which one people decide they want to use.

I think it will get old real fast if people can only interact with people in Facebook while they're signed on to Facebook.

I want a social network that can seamlessly integrate with all of them so I don't have to worry about where all my friends are. I just decide I'm going to try something new and if it works well for me I might stick with it. In the meantime I'll continue to be able to communicate with people on other social networks because "I, as the consumer, should be allowed to dictate where my data can and can't go".