if probability x >> (1 - x) then citing 1-x does not reinforce your case.
More generally, the underlying message here of course is not whether or not this particular story is true, but that there is a large body of evidence that elephants are intelligent animals. It is extremely unlikely that all of these stories are untrue. Thus the underlying thrust of your arguments (elephants are probably stupid) is disingenuous.
Eh? I never said elephants are stupid. The elephants in question had never been to the refuge before - my problem was the writer assumes because they mated with elephants who had they knew where to go. I find that a really difficult claim to accept.
Look, I like a feel-good story as much as the next guy, but this one is a bit much.
But your original post went to some length trying to show that this "news story" was a fake. If you were right, then the author of the story was expressing a bias, an opinion, an attempt to influence, a "message". Gees - you're all over the place on logic.
More generally, the underlying message here of course is not whether or not this particular story is true, but that there is a large body of evidence that elephants are intelligent animals. It is extremely unlikely that all of these stories are untrue. Thus the underlying thrust of your arguments (elephants are probably stupid) is disingenuous.