Yes, the used EV market is still young. The oldest Model Ys are from 2020, and Model 3s go back to 2017. Consumers do not have much experience with used EVs, so they are cautious and prices are low. As time goes by, if older EVs prove to be reliable, used prices will go up. There is already evidence that battery replacement is rare:
> As time goes by, if older EVs prove to be reliable, used prices will go up.
I’m not sure they will - if there remains a cohort of people who keep buying a new car every x years regardless of the mechanical reliability of their old car, and there aren’t many old cars getting taken off the roads (because they’re highly reliable), it’s plausible that the value of old cars gets pushed down from the oversupply.
It could be that the price of used cars goes down due to oversupply, but the price of used EV's relative to the price of used ICE vehicles goes up.
I'm fairly confident the price of used cars is going to go down. Who's going to buy a 5 year old Camry for $20k if the price of a brand new equivalent EV is $20K?
> It could be that the price of used cars goes down due to oversupply, but the price of used EV's relative to the price of used ICE vehicles goes up.
Maybe? I think the best driver of that would be regulation that internalizes the externalities of gas cars, but that doesn't seem to be workable politically.
> Who's going to buy a 5 year old Camry for $20k if the price of a brand new equivalent EV is $20K?
That's a bit of a funny example, because a lot of the value in a $20k used Camry is in the fact that it says "Toyota Camry"... so really, the only "equivalent" EV for $20k is going to be a $20k mid-size Toyota EV. I think we desperately need cheaper EVs, but I don't see a short-to-mid-term reality where Toyota starts selling an EV Camry for 30% less than the current hybrid Camry MSRP.
For used pricing to come down, EV vs ICE is nearly irrelevant - we just need cheaper new cars of whatever people are buying, and I don't see anything especially promising to bring down the cost of new cars.
I had an Accord hybrid and it did not have a transmission at all. There was a clutch and a single gear, which engaged over about 45 mph. Otherwise, the vehicle was propelled by an electric motor. The design, as far as I know, is significantly different than what Toyota uses. Having no transmission plus very little brake wear due to regen breaking felt like a good tradeoff.
Even when you find a good review, there are complexities of manufacturing (and some intentional obfuscation) that make it hard to compare products or know that you are buying the exact same thing that was reviewed.
If you buy the same item a year after the review, it may have changed. This could change performance but be something totally innocent, like the factory changing suppliers for a key component.
Another pattern is this: Large retailers buying in volume are able to customize what they buy, so the "same" product can differ depending on where you buy it. Differences can range from harmless things like "exclusive" colors all the up to changes in functionality, cheaper internal components, and so on. Sometimes the model numbers are not changed.
Another approach manufacturers use is to use slightly different model numbers everywhere which makes it hard to make exact comparisons. This is common with mattresses and appliances.
Seems like Rivian has a great product, but it's unclear whether the company is going to make it. If someone believed that the company will ultimately succeed and achieve scale, they should buy stock. It's very cheap.
It's really unfortunate that Rivian hasn't scaled. To me, their struggles really show how difficult of an industry it is and how small mistakes can really ruin an otherwise solid showing.
Gotta give kudos to Elon for dragging Tesla through the same hurdles and coming out on top with a profitable vehicle.
Is it a fair comparison? The Manhattan project spent 3 years building a single-digit number of bombs 80 years ago, versus 30 years of building submarines, stealth bombers, and missiles to deliver a couple of thousand nuclear warheads.
https://www.motortrend.com/features/ev-battery-lifespan-degr...