Last week I called around to see if I could get a booster before schools open. I was told by several places that they had sent their Covid shots back and I should just wait until mid-September to see whether they get new ones.
Good article wrt question of forecasts and accuracy - charts 30 past years of forecasts and matching observations.
It might be easy to dismiss the Pennsylvania forecast. In some corners of the Internet, Mann is viewed as a master of climate doomerism for his outspoken views on the perils of a warming world. But if anything, since its first issuance in 2007, Mann's forecast has proven to be conservative.
The forecast accuracy could use a dedicated article.
It tracked very well from ~1997-2002, 2008-2012, and 2014-2015. It was off, from 1994-1996, 2003-2004, 2006-2007 2015-2020. In 3 of the 4 cases there the fore cast under-predicted major storms, outside the std of the forecast. I wonder why.
I don't think a ring of galaxies is going to look very different from anyplace within the solar system. Anyway I think moralestapia's point is that the circle might not be centered on us, so the redshift of the galaxies would not be the same. We could still determine that a circle exists by plotting the galaxies in 3D.
No, I mean, a 2D circle could appear as a line from a certain perspective in 3D space.
Spin up your mental model of a circle in 3D space, look at it from a vector perpendicular from its diameter, rotate it 90 degrees in any other axis but the one you're looking at it; on that 2D projection, it will be a line.
>No, I mean, a 2D circle could appear as a line from a certain perspective in 3D space.
Right, and as a matter of fact that's exactly what we DO see with the Milky Way galaxy. It can be conceived of as a circular disc, more or less, but in our sky we see it from the side, as a streak or a band rather than a disc.
I was browsing test kits where you send a sample back to a lab. They're $79 - $300 and advertise 1 or 2 parts per trillion. Looks like getting to 0.02 ppt requires some very specialized equipment, and would probably be optimized for continuous monitoring of a water supply.