Incredible comment, thank you. I can't believe I read this for free. This is probably years of distilled behavior science applied to a workplace-specific environment.
Frankly, we don't know. That "turning point" that seemed so close for many tech, never came for some of them. Think 3D-printing that was supposed to take over manufacturing. Or self-driving, that is "just around the corner" for a decade now. And still is probably a decade away. Only time will tell if GenAI/LLMs are color TV or 3D TV.
> Think 3D-printing that was supposed to take over manufacturing.
3D printing is making huge progress in heavy industries. It’s not sexy and does not make headlines but it absolutely is happening. It won’t replace traditional manufacturing at huge scales (either large pieces or very high throughput). But it’s bringing costs way down for fiddly parts or replacements. It is also affecting designs, which can be made simpler by using complex pieces that cannot be produced otherwise. It is not taking over, because it is not a silver bullet, but it is now indispensable in several industries.
You're misunderstanding the parent's complaint and frankly the complaints with AI. Certainly 3D printing is powerful and hasn't changed things. But you forgot that 30 years ago people were saying there would be one in every house because a printer can print a printer and how this would revolutionize everything because you could just print anything at home.
The same thing with AI. You'd be blind or lying if you said it hasn't advanced a lot. People aren't denying that. But people are fed up being constantly being promised the moon and getting a cheap plastic replica instead.
The tech is rapidly advancing and doing good. But it just can't keep up with the bubble of hype. That's the problem. The hype, not the tech.
Frankly, the hype harms the tech too. We can't solve problems with the tech if we're just throwing most of our money at vaporware. I'm upset with the hype BECAUSE I like the tech.
So don't confuse the difference. Make sure you understand what you're arguing against. Because it sounds like we should be on the same team, not arguing against one another. That just helps the people selling vaporware
>Think 3D-printing that was supposed to take over manufacturing
This was never the case, and this is obvious to anyone who has ever been to factories that doing mass-produced plastic
>Or self-driving, that is "just around the corner" for a decade now.
But it is really around the corner, all that remains is to accept it. That is, to start building and modifying the road infrastructure and changing the traffic rules to enable effective integration self-driving cars into road traffic.
It's not that car companies are unable, but rather, margins on new cars are pretty thin so they are trying to save every last penny.
The key ingredient is indeed data, and also, depending on the stack, hardware. If "true" level 5 self-driving is only possible with LIDAR and up-to-date HD maps, then it won't happen for some time. I foresee that unbounded "full" self-driving will either never happen or with severe boundary conditions only.
In the UK. I know a couple who bought a really old house then spend 3 million on renovating it "period correct", even down to the paint to use plant-based materials only as that was how it was done in the 17th century.
In Europe, Miele is definitely understated wealth, so are hardwood floors in good condition (20+ year neglected floors don't count). Geothermal heating systems.
When we had that power outage in Spain, for a brief period we had a taster of what the world used to be: we had electricity/TV/radio but no Internet access. I must say it was delightful but I'm not sure how it would be long-term. My world-view certainly opened up with Internet access.
ps. I considered using em dash in this paragraph but decided against it due to LLM's using it. Made me a little bit self-conscious for a second. I am self-editing myself not to be mistaken with an AI.
As a counter point, a couple years ago wind storms knocked out power for close to a week where I live (KY, USA). I’ve had power outages before but this time, maybe because of how widespread it was, it made cellular service unusable. I could drive a block away and get a tiny bit of signal but nothing else would come through. No internet, no texts, no iMessage, no Discord.
Not only was it incredibly isolating but I never fully internalized how much I rely on the internet. Thinking back it had been well over a decade since I had been that disconnected. I’d been without power for 1-2 days but only truly without internet for a few hours total (often with a way to get online if I really wanted/needed to, like while flying).
I had plenty of entertainment (books and podcasts) on my phone but I kept trying to look up info on the web. I’d hear or read something, want to follow up on it, type in a google search then be brought crashing back down to the reality of no internet. “Phantom Internet Syndrome”? It really surprised me how much “background” Internet searching/etc I do which I don’t even think about.
I lasted less than 6 waking hours (went out in the evening, in the morning I called it quits) before giving up and driving to my parent’s house (which I was already planning on doing later that week. I have a full office setup there as well).
That experience was eye-opening to me. If someone asked me how often I use the Internet and/or how I’d fare without it, I probably would’ve guessed very wrong.
You had electricity in the power outage? I guess you mean battery powered radio and that the radio transmitter had the same, while telecoms base stations did not.
Yes, I think so too! I'm not sure why, but even though technology has advanced so much compared to before, there still isn't an online game that can surpass it.
