You might want to mention P VS NP is similar to the following scenario: people feel they can identify a piece of art (say a painting) as being of merit very quickly just by seeing it; but won't be able to come up with any piece of equal merit even if they had all the time in the world.
Two numbers. In my mind that is all what is needed to determine if Groupon is the next Amazon, or if their business model is sustainable; and they are far more telling than the silly financial metrics they were throwing around:
1 - % repeat customers.
2 - % merchants who would like to repeat.
I have seen people try to guesstimate them from the financials, or throw around wild guesses based on a sample of anecdotal evidence. Nothing convincing so far.
Also Groupon and other daily deal did publish some of these in the heydays of daily deals, but no continuous updates (I think the most recent claim by Groupon was early this year)
I am sure Groupon keeps a close watch on these metrics, why aren't they releasing it? That in itself is very telling...
Indeed there might be some parallels, especially the fact that the London events started as a peaceful legitimate (to my mind) protest, that has been hijacked by vandals/thieves.
But the parallel stops here; most of the gangsters in the Middle Eastern protests were government stooges that got outnumbered by the civilians and consequently fizzled out.
Hearing the accounts from some commuters returning home of what they witnessed on their commute; it struck me as the first time I hear a use case where Color would actually add some value. ;)
Also it is amusing to see the looters use BBM, which has been the corporate -type favoured mean of communication to loot the economy for years.
On a serious note, just heard a devastating interview with a 6th generation furniture store manager, while witnessing his family store go up in flames (you will see the pic tomorrow in most of the frontages).
It is extraordinarily terrifying to consider the implications if the thugs were a bit more organised, a bit more dispersed, a bit more armed; how much more havoc they could cause.
For example consider the implication to the economy if they start targeting more affluent locations, such the central London high streets (Oxford street, Knightsbridge...). The insurance industry has already been wiped out this year, it will be a deadly blow. To say nothing of the recently depressed UK retail performance which fuels a lot of the London economy.
Or the implications to house prices and thousands of stretched mortgage holders (London housing bubble is perhaps the only housing bubble in the world that hasn't quite popped in the last two years, and if it does at this time it will be cataclysmic) .
No doubt they already wrecked immeasurable damage to the economy, except they bankrupt the already bankrupt councils, which is the core tragedy in all of this.
Is it the case the group buying model is inherently flawed as a business, or did Groupon screw it up just because they didn't execute properly and over-expanded? (assuming they did screw up, based on the recent reports analyzing their finances.)
In other words, what are the chances that other group buying sites will go downhill as will?
Groupon picked the low hanging fruit already without consideration to their existing customers. I haven't heard a single compliment from my business-owning friends about working with groupon, and almost all of them now refuse to work with any daily deals site. So now they are pushing for other businesses which are much more expensive to find and woo.
The model itself is broken: the most successful places have no need to run a daily deal. The failing businesses have real incentive, but there's probably a good reason why they are failing in the first place (and some of my friends have noticed strange service irregularities -- recall the FTD issue earlier this year). Finally, New businesses are inadvertently hurting themselves. When you give out a free sample, people don't expect an item to be free. When you give a daily deal, everyone (not just the participants) mentally shift their price expectations, and it's hard to raise the price again without alienating both the daily deal followers and true customers.
What will win is a group buying program where people can come together and order a service (such as minibuses or family-style restaurants).
