Adapting to whatever battery exists 200 years from now to the form of a CR2032 battery would be simple. A Casio just takes a round battery shell that contacts with the positive and negative terminals on each side.
Hell, I can make one from scratch in my workshop trivially, from basic materials.
Finding high-end mechanical watch technicians? Not so easy. And hardly so cheap.
It’s an x86 PC with unified RAM based on AMD’s new AI cpus. Pretty unique offering. Similar to Mac studio but you can run Linux or Windows on it, and it’s cheaper too.
Manufacturing is already here. US's manufacturing output is higher every year. Manufacturing jobs don't exist, and therefore cannot "come back". There is no scenario where Americans go to work in some kind of electronics or textiles sweatshop. If the result of these tariffs is "more US manufacturing" then all of that manufacturing will be automated and robotic.
Who said anything about sweatshops? You pay the minimum wage expected by law. Apple has $180bn in profits. They could surely afford to pay US workers and lose some of that profit. But everything has been dominated by greed these days.
This implies significant deflation, $7.25/hr locks you out of traditional rental market and property ownership and access to foods beyond the cheapest staples.
You'd be looking at >60hr weeks doing physical labor and living hand to mouth in extreme poverty to sort of stay above water unless everything drops in price by an order of magnitude.
The implication that there will not be a massive drop in quality of life and workplace environments is difficult to reconcile with the seemingly-required impacts of massive deflation in real estate assets and commodity prices.
I like LLMs for what they are. Classifiers. I don’t trust them as search engines because of hallucinations. I use them to get a bearing on a subject but then I’ll turn to Google to do the real research.
[threat of] Hitting on Iran may stop the flow of drones and ballistic missiles to Russia and to the Houthis which would be helpful to the ending both wars.
Edit: for the people, like the commenter below, who happens to be unaware about that major piece of the war (in particular these drones have been the main tool devastating Ukrainian infrastructure)
What do you think is the most likely course of escalation leading to WW3?
I'm not asking for much here, I just want any potential path of escalation, and everyone can judge for themselves how likely it is. If the US performs airstrikes against Iran, what can Iran do that would make WW3 more likely?
Sure, here's one. Iran hits US military bases in UAE and Bahrain. Houthi rebels launch long-range missile attacks at Saudi Arabia's and UAE's oil installations. Hezbollah attacks Israel. At the strait of Hormuz Iran directly targets US and European oil tankers. US is left with no other choice than a large scale military mobilization in the area. You can take it from there.
Are you saying the US would respond to all that with a ground invasion in Iran?
A ground invasion of Iran seems extremely difficult, and would be very unpopular, and it's still unclear how that would lead to a wider world conflict.
Why? The US can just air strike anything forever without ever doing a ground invasion. What objective would the US be seeking that could only be achieved by a ground invasion?
If you don't get boots on the ground you can't change the regime. Bombings alone would only weaken the infrastructure and probably lead local people to hate you even more. Plus in a conflict the opposite side retaliates. Once body bags start pilling back home the general public will demand an invasion.
I'm sure a precision strike at this facility https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Consultative_Assembly would change the regime somewhat, and make many people currently suffering from them rather happy. Could probably be sold as womans liberation.
Hrm. Dunno exactly. Probably give them the option to join the Kurdish Republic of Free Rojava, minus the Barsani-Clan. Otherwise give them the nukes they always wanted. Shining (b)right over their heads. Like the cleanest zoroastrian purification possible.
I think the dangers of nuclear war are overblown in public perception.
Regarding räydiäyshun alone, there have been 512 atmospheric nuclear weapons tests since 1945, and were still here. Maybe with a little bit higher cancer rate, but that could have been caused by many other things, by unwise introduction of byproducts of industrialisation. Hrmm. Lemme ssink...industry...oh yeah, coal power! Even moar räydiäshun!1!! Whee!
Then there is the theory of Hormesis. Which could be applied to at least some forms of weak radiation, in spite of only a few very vocal, nay-saying kooks. See many places around the world, were people are bathing and breathing in radone-rich caves and waters, or beaches in Brazil.
and many more, just without entry in the global cybernetic landfill.
So, away with the 'glo-in-ze-dark' stuff, except for one last thing:
Spontane Verdampfung führt zur Entkrampfung! (Spontaneous evaporation leads to relaxation)
Hrmyah, whaddäbbout WW3? Depending on where you are, that already happened, when seen as total devastation of ones environment. Does it matter when it glows in the dark by itself? Does it have to, to make ones situation even more miserable? Do I care?
No. I prefer a rather cold, zoomed out view, as envisioned in the commandments of the Georgia Guidestones, proudly riding my trusty Blucifer.
Ze Ztarz! My Destination! (One way or another, I don't bother)
Now please excuse me, I need to have the snake tatto reapplied to my dick, otherwise Jizzbella disapproves...…
Because Syria is fragile, and so is Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Yemen. Those are all countries where Iran has very strong influence. The world isn't the same as it was 20 years ago, and Iran is way more powerful than what Iraq was back then.
Any type of action has a reaction. Iran can target US military bases all around Middle East. They can damage tankers passing the Persian Gulf causing havoc to worldwide markets.
The competition isn't self-hosting. If you can just pick a capable model from any provider inference just turns into a infrastructure/PaaS game -> The majority of the profits will be captured by the cloud providers.
I'm not sure how it'll ever make sense unless you need a lot of customizations or care a lot about data leaks.
For small guys and everyone else.. it'll probably be cost neutral to keep paying OpenAi, Google etc directly rather than paying some cloud provider to host an at best on-par model at equivalent prices.
I've tried self hosting. It is quite difficult, and either you are limited to low models, either you need a very expensive setup. I couldn't run this model on my gaming computer.
If I try other models, I basically end up with a very bad version of AI. Even if I'm someone who uses Anthropic APIs a lot, it's absolutely not worth it to try and self host it. The APIs are much better and you get much cheaper results.
Self hosting for AI might be useful for 0.001% of people honestly.
To be more precise, it's not that there's no decrease in quality, it's that with the RAM savings you can fit a much better model. E.g. with LLaMA, if you start with 70b and increasingly quantize, you'll still get considerably better performance at 3 bit than LLaMA 33b running at 8bit.
I have been seeing models get better, and each time the SOTA improves, the upgrade seems amazing.
Bonus irony: this is despite the fact I've personally drawn attention to the exact same trend with increasing quality of 3D rendering over the 90s, where each improvement was seen as "photorealistic" only to be forgotten 6 months later when a better engine (or even tool) got the same aclaim.
EUV lithography machines are borderline science fiction. I mean if you look at all the steps included it's mind boggling. Shooting tiny droplets of tin with two lasers at a speed of 50k times/second, harvesting uv light through atomic precision mirrors, moving wafers with nanometer precision and all that in perfect vacuum. You watch the video demos and seems like you're watching a sf movie.
It just seems tremendously inefficient. Power in vs useful power out is huge. What's stopping them from "just" making a uv laser? I'm guessing tin is the only material with the right size of band gap to emit at the required frequency.
Semiconductors with direct band gaps like gallium nitride can be used to make light emitting diodes (both incoherent light and lasers). Gallium nitride emits light around 405 nanometers:
The emission from tin in EUV light sources is actually from thermal (blackbody) radiation. The infrared lasers heat tin vapor to extremely high temperatures where it shines into the extreme ultraviolet. It's inherently wasteful but this extreme ultraviolet range is much harder to access than visible light or near ultraviolet.
It's really weird that particle accelerators or just some sort of X-ray tubes are apparently even more bothersome than precisely exploding freefalling drops of liquid tin with heat rays.
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