Recently I learned about cats starting fires. Cat arsonists leap up onto kitchen counter tops and walk across the glass hob with touch buttons to turn the hob on. A chip pan fire then ensues.
Because of the rise in fires cause by cat arsonists, the British fire services now carry oxygen masks for cats. Since there is a reasonable chance that a house fire is caused by a cat arsonist, it only makes sense to take the cat-sized oxygen mask. They don't want the culprits deceased if they are to interrogate them.
There are two grains of truth in the above tall tale, the fire service do carry oxygen masks for cats and cats do start fires from walking on hob buttons. Put together it sounds ludicrously credible, verging on urban myth.
I now need to work on 'penguin arsonists' to combine with the fact that there is an Antarctic fire service.
A husky famously caused a fire on a physical control stove top when he tried to get pizza which sat on top of the stove top. There’s videos (everyone survived including the dog)
Also, the Bitcoin received as mining rewards might sometimes be more valuable to the recipient than the notionally greater amount of other currency (or even nominally greater amount of Bitcoin!) spent on equipment and power, eg if it is outside of sanctions, no longer tied to proceeds of a crime, no longer connected to a state's budget, etc.
To me the popular vote is irrelevant and in my original post I meant the winner, despite saying the majority which you interpreted to mean “more than 50% of the population of the US”. We have a system in place to counterbalance the fact that large numbers of likeminded people concentrated in one area could otherwise rule over everyone else through tyranny of the majority. To me the majority therefore just means “most of the US”.
If you think betters do not have the odds right, you should start betting right now.
My understanding is that Silver's model has been more favorable to Trump than 538, by virtue of 538 having Kamala up just a little while Silver had her up less or Trump up a little. In the past couple days 538 shifted a little toward Trump; I'm not sure Silver's model did the same. His updates have been saying "small moves, still basically tied" for a while, but like you I'm outside the paywall.
Doesn't really undermine your point, but as a fun aside: Trusting Trust style attacks on compilers were (theoretically) solved by David Wheeler with "diverse double compiling".
Yes, good point. That's pretty similar to scientific falsifiability at least!
I think for topics that are not as easily provable as reproducible builds though, trust gets murky.
There was something else I read (can't find it now) that made a similar analogy for a web of trust.
A web of trust (e.g. PGP) will have de-facto authorities since there will be a tendency for more people to sign individuals presumed to be trustworthy based on their history. It follows that the system runs into issues if their key gets compromised or if a false individual is subject to a sybil attack, producing the illusion of trust. See also: github stars, cryptocurrency, social media follower counts.
> Now I'm pretty sure we will see the first trillionaire in the next decade
Not if we do the right thing and switch to labeling our large numbers using the "long" system. Then they'll merely be back to being "billionaires" (instead of milliardaires) despite having the net worth you were discussing.
It does display the lyrics w/ one click, also the sheet music, has multiple recordings, and is actually Lehrer's site. It's true that there's no video.
There's a social sense in which you're correct - the machine wasn't counting on that wage, didn't cancel plans to be available, etc...
But from a financial perspective, most of the cost for the machines is probably in buying the machines, where most of the cost of the worker is probably hourly wage (or similar). Turning off the machines probably saves less money than sending the people home.
I think you probably need more dexterity (and grip strength) for minimal successful communication with a pen than with Morse code, especially if you wind up trying to do both without visual feedback.
The odds of those around you noticing is something you have some power over, if you're thinking about it ahead of time.
All true, but a pen still can be legibly used in at least some such situations. I've seen it done.
I'm not saying not to plan around Morse, just that it's a little early to assume there must be no other hope - and always too early to place much faith in being able to exert control over circumstances where, more or less definitionally, this is not a reasonable thing to expect.
That probably sounds scary. I can't help that. Dying is a scary topic, I imagine likely much more so for actually doing it, which I as yet have not. But I do know some things about how to handle fear, and one is that it helps a lot when that doesn't come by surprise - when you don't have to start totally from scratch to build what equanimity is available.
Less so than any one specific response, what I'd focus on trying to prepare for is that. You can't really know what tools you will have available in such a moment. You can't really know you will have any. Whatever there is, though, you'll have an easier time to recognize and use for being able to better see past that fear.
It can, but -G or -R can fix that.
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