For context: the Q4 revenue/EPS results came in ABOVE sell-side consensus per Factset and Q1 guidance is also ABOVE Factset consensus on both revenues and gross margins.
well, all you need to know is if they beat Street expectations for EPS and FCF...which they did...massively...which is why the stock is up 20% after hours.
It's not really that surprising. The growth expectations are taking into account that there are still several new markets to enter (Model Y, pickup, semi, etc.) and that continued reductions in manufacturing costs should allow lower prices which lead to higher sales volumes.
But last year there were more tax credits, which front-loaded a lot of sales into a year ago, and they haven't released a new model this year. So this YoY decline wasn't that this quarter was unusually bad, it was that this quarter a year ago was unusually good.
People seem to act like the Model Y will just be an entirely additive thing to Tesla sales. How many Model 3's will be cannibalized by Tesla announcing a cheaper crossover? The demand for each of their vehicles is very interrelated, as seen by what the Model 3 has done to S/X sales in every country it has entered.
What I see with the revenue decline, and if you look at sales patterns by the countries they have entered is a company whose number one vehicle, the Model 3, has peaked in demand. I don't see many levers for them to really increase that, and many of the company releases, like the Model Y, will only cannibalize more of that demand.
Having the Model 3 take sales from Model S or X wasn't great because it costs less. The Model Y is priced above the Model 3. People buying it instead would only increase their revenue.
Yes, but how many Model 3s will they sell when they start selling Model Ys? If they're selling 300,000 Model 3s a year, I would expect that number to decrease when the Y is released.
Suppose they don't compete with each other at all, so they continue to sell 300,000 Model 3s and then sell 200,000 Model Ys. Suppose they do, so in that case they drop to 200,000 Model 3s but sell 300,000 Model Ys. Isn't the second case better for them, since they get more for the Model Y than the Model 3?
At a 9% nominal return, that would imply an after tax return at a 40% rate of 5.4%. Then take out inflation of 2%, and you get a 3.4% real return on stocks. Which, if you consider the risk is pretty terrible. So would expect markets to reflect that divergence of risk/return that this bill would introduce and lead to a massive stock market sell-off.
this is easily solved by phasing it in over time (stock bought before x year remains under old rules, increase taxes to match ordinary income gradually over a decade)
